2022 wildfire season posing typical levels of risk

The Parley's Canyon Fire in August erupted alongside I-80 due to a catalytic converter. Photo: Park City Fire District

PARK CITY, Utah — The 2022 wildfire season is shaping up to be a typical risk year, per a report written by Mike McComb, who leads Park City’s Emergency Management department.

The main conclusion from the Parley’s Canyon Fire in August of 2021 was that the Summit County community was “lucky.” McComb said last year that it “was kind of the big one for us.”

The Great Basin Coordination Center (GBCC) Predictive Services team is forecasting below-average precipitation for Utah beginning this month, with warmer temperatures arriving in May and June.

“This early in the season, that signifies only an average chance of wildfire throughout most of the State, with no significant concerns for the time being, although areas of higher fire risk are forecast in the southern and central parts of the State in May and June,” McComb writes.

In July, GBCC is forecasting above-normal wildfire risk in the northern Wasatch.

Current snow readings in Thaynes Canyon are 79% when compared to the average snow-water equivalent in the years 1991-2020. “As a silver lining, this lower level of snowpack poses a lower risk of high runoff levels and should not generate a concerning volume of fine fuels during the coming spring green-up,” the report states.

According to data collected through about the end of March, current year precipitation accumulation is in line with the 30-year average.

The GBCC’s models indicate a possible return from ‘La Niña’ to neutral conditions this summer and into the fall – with the possibility of average precipitation for the Summit County area.

McComb notes that the National Interagency Coordination Center has increased its preparedness stance to National Preparedness Level 2 (it runs on a scale from 1-5, with 5 being the highest).

Summit County upgraded to ‘Severe’ drought from ‘Extreme’ in 2021.

During a congressional committee meeting on Tuesday, U.S. Forest Service officials said that it expects to substantially increase the numbers of firefighters this year.

There will be a Wildland Interface Awareness Meeting on May 3 at 6 pm at the Jim Santy Auditorium in the Park City Library.