The Jordanelle Reservoir. As SNOTEL sites in the mountains are snowing drying soil, experts are concerned about future drought un Utah. Photo: TownLift // Rayne Moynahan

SUMMIT COUNTY, Utah – After two consecutive dry months in June and July, state officials are beginning to worry about the possibility of future drought conditions.

July was a disappointing month for Utah’s mountain precipitation. A recent report published by Natural Resources Conservation Science (NRCS) shows July precipitation levels around the state relative to average, but the high-elevation mountainous areas where water supply is generated, called SNOTEL sites, received a meager 0.6 inches of precipitation during July, which is only 54% of normal.

This brings Utah’s statewide water year-to-date precipitation to 103% of normal and raises concerns about water availability moving forward.

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As of August 1, statewide mountain soil moisture began to dip below normal, at 35% saturation. Experts say comparing soil moisture levels at different depths can provide an indication of future drought conditions.

“We are really hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2020 summer, where an above-normal preceding snowpack season was followed by extremely hot and dry conditions resulting in historically dry soil moisture levels going into the subsequent winter,” the report read.

That confluence of events is what would, in turn, contribute to poor runoff conditions the following spring because more snowmelt would seep into the dry layer of soil before reaching state reservoirs.

July precipitation totals at Utah’s SNOTEL sites, expressed as a percent of average. With the
exception of the Bear watershed, July rainfall was quite meager across the state. Image: NRCS

Water availability

Statewide reservoirs are currently at 83% of capacity, which is 8% lower than last month. While our reservoir capacity is still high, the decreases shown per basin present some reason for concern among scientists. Water Availability Indices (WAIs) for Utah basins combine current reservoir conditions with observed monthly streamflow for each region. WAIs have dipped below normal—50^th percentile—for the Western Uintas, Blacks Fork, Smiths Fork, Joes Valley, and Lower Sevier areas.