Gov. Cox, Rep. Curtis maintain strong leads over Democratic challengers

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UTAH – As the General Election in November approaches, both Governor Spencer Cox and U.S. Representative John Curtis, the Republican nominees for Utah Governor and U.S. Senate, are maintaining strong leads over their Democratic challengers.

According to new polls conducted by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics, incumbent Governor Spencer Cox leads Brian King, a current member of the Utah House of Representatives, by 40 points in a head-to-head contest.

The polls also show Congressman Curtis with a 34-point lead over climate activist and professional ski mountaineer Caroline Gleich.

If the election for Utah governor were held today, the poll indicates that 59% of registered Utah voters would choose Spencer Cox, the Republican nominee, while 19% would vote for Brian King, the Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, 23% remain unsure or undecided.

With less than 3 months remaining until Election Day, Cox’s projected winning margin increased by 4 percentage points when undecided voters were asked to choose between the two major party candidates who will appear on the November ballot.

Cox’s polling numbers appear unaffected by primary challenger Phil Lyman’s recent efforts to unseat him or his announcement of a write-in campaign, which could potentially draw some Republican votes away from Cox.

The poll closely mirrors the results of the last two general elections for Utah governor. In 2020, Cox won against Chris Peterson with 64% to 31%. In 2016, former Governor Gary Herbert defeated Mike Weinholtz with 67% to 30%.

In a matchup between Rep. Curtis and Democratic nominee Caroline Gleich, 56% of registered Utah voters indicated they would support Curtis, 22% favored Gleich, and 22% remained unsure, according to the poll.

When undecided voters were prompted to choose a candidate if the election were held today, Curtis’ lead over Gleich widened to 71%-29%. This 40-point advantage remained unchanged even when voters were given the option of supporting Independent American candidate Carlton Bowen.

These results are in line with recent Senate races in Utah between Democrats and Republicans. In 2018, Romney defeated Jenny Wilson with 63% to 40%. In 2016, Sen. Mike Lee won against Misty Snow with 68% to 27%.

In Lee’s 2022 reelection campaign, he faced independent candidate Evan McMullin and won by a narrower margin of 53%-43%. Utah Democrats did not field a Senate candidate in that election.

Both polls were conducted from Aug. 2-9 among 800 registered voters in Utah by HarrisX. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.