Low snowpack puts Utah’s water outlook at risk heading into spring

The Jordanelle Reservoir. Photo: TownLift

UTAH — Utah is facing one of its lowest snowpacks on record, and experts are warning that it is unlikely to recover to normal levels this winter.
Several major basins—including the Weber-Ogden, Provo-Utah Lake-Jordan, Tooele Valley-Vernon Creek, and Lower Sevier—are at record-low snow water equivalent (SWE) levels. Statewide, SWE was just 56% of the median as of February 1, marking a 20% drop from last month and a 40% decline since early December.

Projections based on previous years’ observations suggest only a 10% chance of reaching an average snowpack peak, while there is roughly a 30% chance of ending the season with a record-low peak. Many areas are currently 3–8 inches below normal, with some locations—like the Ben Lomond Peak SNOTEL site—off by as much as 13 inches.

Numerous significant storms would have to hit the state to offer reasonable odds of recovery at this point given the substantial SWE deficits, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Still, there is some positive news for spring runoff. Although January precipitation was below normal at 75%, Utah’s water-year-to-date precipitation is near normal at 96% of median. Soil moisture in the mountains is above average, which could help boost runoff efficiency if the state receives significant snowfall later in the season.

Utah relies heavily on snowpack for its water supply. Reservoir storage is currently at 64% of capacity, which is down 12% from last year but roughly equal to the 10-year average for early February. Streamflow forecasts for April through July show wide variability, with some basins expected to receive as little as 21% of average runoff.

The Great Salt Lake is also feeling the effects. SWE in the basin is at 58% of median, and forecasts suggest that inflows this spring could raise the lake by only 0.01–1.6 feet, leaving it well below its optimal level of 4,198 feet. Current lake volume is estimated at 8.9 million acre-feet, far short of the 13.5 million acre-feet needed to reach the target elevation.

State water managers caution that these forecasts are preliminary and subject to change, but the overall outlook points to continued strain on Utah’s snowpack-dependent water supply. Officials emphasize the importance of monitoring conditions and preparing for potential shortages in the coming months.